Monocle

Late last July, El Pais reported, the Spanish government offered the Assad family political asylum. Over a thousand years ago, another Syrian dynasty ended up taking refuge in Spain. Then, rivals marching in from Baghdad pushed the Umayyads out of Damascus. Hunted down, a handful escaped to Andalusia where they built one of Islam’s most sophisticated empires.

But the Assads are not the Umayyads and for now, there are no foreign armies preparing to step into Syria. The fresh offer from Spain is unlikely to be accepted.

Now in the sixth month of uprisings, the atrocities committed by the government on its people are continuing unabated. Earlier this month, Syria’s most prominent political cartoonist was beaten up and his hand broken to pieces. Yet the opposition remains scattered and leaderless. Up to this point, it has not managed to sway the bulk of Aleppo and Damascus’ urban classes.

“Aside from issues of freedom and democracy, there’s going to be a point when the state won’t be able to provide economically,” believes Fadi Salem, a Syrian academic based in Dubai. “The economy is a ticking clock. Even people who are supportive of the regime might change their minds.”

When Bashar al Assad took power in 2000 he ushered in a cautious programme of economic liberalisation. Private banks were set up, ATM machines appeared and a small stock exchange started trading. Tourism also flourished with dozens of new hotels, and the likes of Francis Ford Coppola and Bette Midler visiting the country.

These economic gains are now in jeopardy.

Qatar has cancelled two major electricity deals and Turkey, Syria’s main trading partner, has also withdrawn investments. According to a Damascus-based lawyer specialised in foreign investments in Syria, FDI work has come to a halt. Tourism, a sector that accounted for 12 per cent of GDP, shares a similar predicament.

Perhaps sensing the meltdown, the former Syrian economic minister allegedly tried to board a plane out of the country last June. He was stopped by the authorities and duly replaced.

Ramy Makhlouf, the president’s cousin who controls a large portion of the economy was forced to sell his prime assets (Syriatel and Syria Duty Free) before he was allowed to leave the country. The move was seen as a token demonstration of anti-nepotism from the regime.

To stop capital flight, the state continues imposing additional restrictions. For instance, anyone wishing to take out 1 million Syrian pounds (about €15,000) or more now needs special approval. The same goes for foreign currencies (ordinary Syrians can only buy a maximum of €750 twice a year).

The EU has slapped a fresh wave of sanctions on Syria, banning the import of Syrian oil – 95 per cent of which is currently sold to Europe, accounting for one third of the state’s income. And last Saturday the EU went a step further and banned the export of notes and coins to the country (an important source of liquidity) as well as adding more sanctions on the oil sector and key business and political figures.

No doubt, the government will find creative ways to temper the sanctions. But the question is whether the country’s businessmen and perhaps even state employees and soldiers will accept to go along for much longer.

Ramzy Ayass is a Monocle contributor who has reported extensively from Syria